February 8, 2012

Mental Model: The Dunning–Kruger Effect

Have you ever wondered why some people come to erroneous conclusions despite all the counter evidence, overestimate their abilities, and constantly make mistakes whereas other, more intelligent people often claim ignorance and throw things on the "too hard" pile? I mean, the reality is that 49.99% of people must be below average at any given time at any given skill.  Yet, studies have shown that 90% of Swedish drivers believe they are above average, which is absurd.  Most people believe they … [Read more...]

Wisdom for the Day – 07/04/10

It is a disgrace for a gentleman's words to be greater than his deeds.- Confucious, Spring and Autumn Period Beware lest your eyes are bigger than your belly. - Traditional Chinese Proverb A great man is hard on himself. A small man is hard on others. - Confucious, Spring and Autumn Period The wise man never trusts in appearances. - Confucious, Spring and Autumn Period A tiger does not take insults from sheep. - Traditional Chinese Proverb The leader must be at the forefront of … [Read more...]

The True Test of Greatness Comes in the Heart of Winter

Only in winter do the pine and cypress show they are evergreen. - Confucius points out that all trees are green when times are easy, Spring and Autumn Period When you are managing your business, your life, or money, the true test of your ability and talent will come during the bad times. Have you managed your liquidity well enough so that even the worst depression won't wipe you out? Have you conducted yourself with restraint so you don't find yourself buried under interest expense on credit … [Read more...]