February 8, 2012

The Money Illusion – Why Thinking About Things In Nominal Currency Can Destroy Your Net Worth

German Mark Inflation

In 1928, Irving Fisher published The Money Illusion (seriously, buy it - it's only $7.95), which discussed the human fallacy of thinking about things in the nominal currency of your home country instead of in terms of purchasing power.  The concept phrase "money illusion" was coined by legendary investor and economist John Maynard Keynes. The easiest way to think about the money illusion is a phrase Warren Buffett has proclaimed: It isn't how many dollars you have, but how many … [Read more...]

We Are Living in the Midst of One of the Biggest Bond Bubbles in History

McDonald's Bond Certificate Corporate Debentures

Today, I was sitting at the dining room table, drinking a cup of coffee and wearing my Brooks Brothers pajamas watching the stock market skyrocket when it occurred to me that, given the secret project and some other things going on at the business, I want to build some cash and bond reserves at one of the individual operating companies; maybe put aside money a little at a time, let it build and do something fun with it three or four years from now, like design and build a row of townhouses or … [Read more...]

What a Superpower China Means for the United States

The Face of Modern China

When I was 16 years old, I was sitting in the hallways of the local high school, waiting for class to begin, discussing the state of the world with Molly.  She stopped me and asked a simple, direct question: "Do you believe that the life of an American is more valuable than the life of any other human?  Because the answer to that question is going to determine your economic, political, social and moral worldview." As we established in the first essay on the rise of the Chinese … [Read more...]

Mental Model: The Revolution of Satisfied Expectations

The Revolution of Satisfied Expectations: "Research conducted by Daniel Kahneman of Princeton University, and by others who have come to approximately the same conclusion, shows that most people judge their well-being not by measuring where they stand but rather based on whether they think their circumstances and income will improve in coming years.  For example, in the 1950s, when most American families lived in small houses, owned one car, and few if any family members attended college, … [Read more...]

International Asset Allocation 101

British Pound Sterling Banknotes

Most growth asset allocation model portfolios call for exposure to the international asset class. In fact, in the article Factor In Your Income Sources When Seeking Diversification, I explained that one of the ways my own family reduced the risk involved with having such a big part of our net worth invested in private businesses involved in domestic manufacturing was to park almost all of our retirement assets and plans in international stocks, bonds, mutual funds and real estate. What does … [Read more...]