Our Investment Research Process

A week or two ago, I wrote an article called Understanding Stock Repurchase Plans for About.com, a division of The New York Times, which discussed Sonic Restaurant and the massive stock buy back program that had taken place over the past few years.  I walked the readers through a lot of the math and explained that I had purchased a couple hundred shares to watch and monitor the stock through one of my companies, Mount Olympus Awards, LLC.  (I’ve since increased it to about 500 shares to continue watching and waiting to see how events unfold).

Analyzing Sonic Restaurant Investment Reports Regarding Share Buy Backs

Here's a shot from my iPhone of a typical investor packet cover sheet, in this case the one for Sonic Corporation that was used when I wrote my report on the share repurchase program for About.com.

Some of the readers wanted to know how I read a stock report or analyze a company.  Buffett often jokes, “Well, I start at the beginning and work my way through the end.”  There is a lot of truth in that.  Still, I thought it might be helpful to include some details on the process by which I put together our research.

How I Structure the Investment Files or Packets for Each Company

In terms of specifics, I often have an what we call in-house an “investment packet” or an “investment file” constructed on companies that have passed an initial screen or have piqued my interest somehow.  (The initial screen consists of things that I look for in potential investments such as low valuation relative to historically high returns on non-leveraged assets).

This packet contains several things: (more…)

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Remember the industry price war we decided to start?  As we were rolling out the wholesale business site and “flipping the switch” so to speak, a beautiful, huge snow storm hit and the images were great so I thought I’d post some of them here.

Snowstorm in the Forest

No matter how much money any of us amass, or how accomplished we become, there are some things money cannot buy. This is one of them. It's just ... perfect. I thank God I got to see it, especially from the comfort of my window as I did what I love for a living.

Joshua Kennon Desk During Snow Storm

As I was reviewing the changes in the wholesale business launch for the letterman jacket company, the snow began to fall and within a few minutes, had begun to transform the landscape. This is the view from one of my desks in the investing office.

View from the Balcony During Snow Storm

This is a view from one of the balconies overlooking the forest when the snow storm hit.

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Mount Olympus Awards Declaring War on the Letterman Jacket Industry

As one of the oldest and largest online retailers of letterman jackets and custom chenille awards, Mount Olympus Awards has reached a point where our purchasing power enables us to actually increase our shareholders' return on equity by lowering the price on stock letterman jackets from $239.95 MSRP to $129.95, saving our customers at least $110.00 on the jacket alone, plus what we save them on the awards. Following a five-hour meeting with a DuPont ROE analysis, we realized that there is a huge opportunity to increase our returns on capital even further, while saving our customers more than 45.84% off retail. Despite not being active in day-to-day management (I'm a passive investor in the firm and have total control over investment policies), I wanted to actually be the one to "flip the switch" given the huge change in the nature of the business. I had my office PowerMac tied into the network and changed the prices myself, setting them to go live within the next 12 hours. Here's a picture of my desk as I did it. We certainly have come a long way since Aaron and I hand coded HTML pages in Dreamweaver via FTP during college.

Last night, the shareholders of Mount Olympus Awards, LLC had a 4 or 5 hour scheduled meeting in a local office and solidified our plans for the business, which I discussed a few days ago (see Wholesale Chenille Letters, Patches, and Varsity Jacket Business Launching).  The end decision was we are going much farther than we originally anticipated after doing a DuPont Return on Equity analysis.  Far from being just ruthless on pricing, like I promised, we are about to drop a nuclear bomb on the letterman jacket industry by transforming our company into the same business model used by Rose Blumkin to build Nebraska Furniture Mart.  We generate higher returns on equity for shareholders, our customers save money to a degree that wasn’t even possible only a few years ago, and we have the opportunity to compete for additional business that we previously chose not to pursue.

There are four components to this plan, which launches within 12 hours:

1. Drastic retail price reductions on letterman jackets, varsity jackets, and letter sweaters
We are dropping the price of our brand name, American-manufactured stock letterman jackets (companies such as Rock Creek, Holloway, and any remaining DeLong merchandise) to $129.95 from the MSRP of $239.95, giving customers $110.00 off, or 45.84%.  We already dominate the industry, yet our market analysis shows that we have an opportunity to more than make up for the price drop in volume profits.  Given that there is very little cost of capital due to our business model, there is no down side.  In other words, individuals can now purchase their letterman jackets and varsity jackets from us for less than many wholesale companies can purchase them! The same brand names, the same quality, with no minimum orders.  We will still earn attractive margins due to the sheer quantity of merchandise moving through our system.  The same is true for our letter sweaters, which we are dropping from an MSRP of $180.00 per letter sweater to $69.95, a total discount of $110.05 or 61.14%.

2. Launching a direct-to-school and corporate division that offers wholesale prices
We are transforming MOA Team Supply into a direct-to-school and institutional business that will sell wholesale custom chenille letters, patches, and awards at prices below what most American manufacturers can manufacture the product for in their own facilities.  These products, with only a few exceptions, are made here in the United States.  Due to our volume, we will still make more than adequate compensation (in fact, our profit margins are comparable to those of one of the firms I admire, Bloomberg, LP).  My team has identified 3-4 of the top players in this market and we are going to aggressively go after their business.  We can beat their prices, and in many cases, offer faster delivery.

3. We will devote whatever capital is necessary to becoming the nation’s largest retailer and direct-to-school custom chenille and letterman jacket company
Mount Olympus Awards has indirectly served as one of the investment vehicles through which I had  put capital to work.  For instance, during the crash in March of 2010, I used the company’s cash flow to engage the capital markets heavily; e.g., when General Electric had fallen from $40 to below $6, I had the company buy a hell of a lot of common stock and even more LEAP (long-term call options) that have been obscenely profitable and will show up on our 2010 tax return (GE is back up above $16 per share).  Hence, the old inside joke among the shareholders that we are basically a hedge fund in drag.  In order to support these changes, I will halt all dividends, except tax distributions, and we will retain all of our capital to commit to whatever purchases are necessary with our letterman jacket vendors and suppliers.  Capital markets investments will come second to our primary business.

4. We will expand our product offerings into complimentary lines, such as embroidered patches worn by those in the service industry (sewn on or ironed on to a mechanic’s uniform, for instance).
We already have the relationships with the vendors necessary to immediately jump head first into this line of business, and we attract millions upon millions of page views at our various online sites each year.  With a database of tens of thousands of customer names, we can hit the ground running.

The Ultimate Plan
Despite my general distaste for selling assets, I would consider selling the letterman jacket business within 3-5 years (not before then because the things we have in development are paying off heavily, meaning that every day that goes by, the underlying operating profits and cash flow continues to expand geometrically and that would mean a higher valuation for us, and a better, more powerful strategic asset for the firm that acquired us).

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MOA Team Supply wholesale chenille letters and wholesale varsity jackets

Over the next month, we will be rolling out MOA Team Supply Version 2.0, which will switch to a wholesale pricing model on custom chenilles and varsity jackets. In many cases, we will be able to sell to schools, organizations, booster clubs, and other instiutions at prices below that what most American custom chenille factories can produce their merchandise! This is due to our extremely fine honed business model that allows us to operate with a fraction of the total capital investment and a cash conversion cycle that is self-funding.

A few months back, I told you that we were launching a new division of Mount Olympus Awards called MOA Team Supply.  I explained that we were going after an entirely new market, specifically athletic directors and schools that want to purchase wholesale chenille letters, chenille patches, and even wholesale varsity jackets.  We’ve finally got the business model in place and over the next month, we will be modifying the prices on the site to reflect the roll-out of our wholesale chenille structure, in some cases using our substantial purchasing power to sell varsity letters at a price lower than many factories can produce them here in the United States!  It’s a huge accomplishment and, frankly, I can’t wait to get this off the ground.

As I said then, and I’m repeating now, I am going to be absolutely ruthless on pricing. We are a better business.  We have figured out how to generate higher margins despite passing on substantial savings to our customers, meaning that we can turn a profit at prices lower than most wholesale chenille companies! We are going to structure some key school programs and get printed high gloss catalogs, along with informational videos and other materials in the hands of some of the nation’s biggest districts.  I’m going to create a culture where schools can order what they need in under a few seconds, submit their purchase order and payment, and receive wholesale chenille patches, letters, and varsity jackets manufactured right here in the United States.

To put it in simple terms, we’re going to make wholesale chenille letters and patches more affordable for students throughout the country, pump money into American manufacturers of the products, and create an ordering process that makes athletic directors happy and their lives less stressful. (more…)

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Kennon Green and Company

For the first, I understand what Buffett and Munger mean when they say there is "no master plan". If you follow attractive values, and focus on opportunity cost, you end up in places you never expected. I have no idea what the firm will look like 10 years from now, only that we will focus on generating the highest risk-adjusted real return on capital.

I’ve been thinking a lot about the ultimate form the partnership or the holding company is going to take when I consolidate everything I own – all of my private businesses, stocks, bonds, real estate, and other assets, along with my parents, family, and friends, under a single investment vehicle (I explained this in We’ve Finally Settled on a Course of Action).  This has been occupying and increasingly large percentage of my time, mostly because I think the best thing to do is to simply raise capital, take a percentage of the profits, and then invest the money in the best risk-adjusted opportunities.  Which opportunities present themselves and which time is beyond our control, so there’s really no way to predict, ahead of time, what our holdings will be.

I do know, however, that there are a few areas that interest me.  I’ve been breaking them up in an organizational matrix so I can think about how to put together the various “pieces” when the time comes.  This is probably 5+ years in the future.

Here’s the plan …

(more…)

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There’s some exciting news coming out of headquarters in the next few days regarding the expansion of our flagship custom apparel company.  We’re going to aggressively go after a new market that has seen its primary players devastated by the credit crisis and, like any good American, we are going to use the situation to our advantage.

MOA Team Supply Screenshot

MOA Team Supply Screenshot

We are working until about 4 in the morning to launch the new team supply business, which will be a division of Mount Olympus Awards ™, the successful custom letterman jacket business we launched several years ago. Due to our low-cost expense structure, we can get brutal on pricing, provide great customer service, and still generate higher profit margins than our competitors despite charging as much as 70% off their traditional prices. It’s a great system that lets us leverage our existing client relationships and, I hope, add a few million dollars in revenue to the company’s tax returns each year.  The product lineup that we hope to have in place by the fourth quarter will include team uniforms including baseball, softball, basketball, hockey, lacrosse, cheerleading, soccer, football, and track, just to name a few.

What will be interesting is that we are building this business on a scalable platform that has a far more flexible coding properties than the Yahoo merchant solutions site we use at some of our other stores.  This means that we can enter hundreds of products per day by working in CSV-formatted excel sheets, uploaded en masse in a few seconds. This should let us eventually reach a productivity metric of several million dollars in sales per employee, a figure that most people can’t even dream about, let alone believe is possible.

The specific nature of the team market makes me optimistic on our prospects.  We are going to be absolutely ruthless.  In less than one year, we are going to build one of the largest online team sporting goods dealers in the country.  If there is one thing our business model has mastered, it’s the ability to serve customers better, deliver goods in a fraction of the time, and generate profit margins in excess of Microsoft’s despite selling at huge discounts off our rivals.  There’s no way the competitors can keep up because this is what we think about every day when we wake up, at night when we are lying in bed, during the holidays as we wrap gifts, in the summer as we spend an afternoon in the pool … this market is one that is entered by those who simply wanted to find a way to make money and enjoy a decent life with their family.  How can they possibly compete with an investor who reverse-engineered the business and built it from the ground up for one purpose, and one purpose only: To generate ever-increasing torrents of free cash flow to be redeployed into other opportunities? They cannot win.

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