Serenity Now!

This post deals with my side speculation fund, not my investments.  You shouldn’t have a speculation fund unless you have short-term emergency reserves, little or no debt, fully funded retirement accounts and the lifestyle you want. In fact, for a vast majority of people, I think it would be completely inappropriate unless you love the financial markets and they provide you deep satisfaction.*

Woke up this morning to find that one of my speculative accounts was down $50,000 and due to the trading strategy, it has only four months remaining before it becomes a permanent loss.  So, in sixteen weeks I’ll have either made a nice chunk of change or I’ll have lost that amount.  All of that beautiful gambling money … gone.  Let’s just say I’m not terribly optimistic it will work out in my favor but you never know.

It reminded me of when Charlie Munger, after he had become very, very rich, saw Berkshire Hathaway lose $250 million or so in no time on an airline investment Warren Buffett had made and Charlie described the feeling of watching all of that beautiful money just disappear right in front of your eyes… Even though it won’t do any damage to a healthy business in the long-run, it isn’t pleasant.

(Don’t cry for me … I’m a big boy and I can take it.  Molly informs me that anecdotes like this will make my biography believable.  Otherwise, it will have just been an obnoxious direct upward ascent that will demotivate, rather than inspire people.  I told her the rare loss is fine but I’d prefer to make the mistakes up through creative editing so I can keep the money and still inspire, LOL!)

Anyway, I was talking to my dad about it because he has his own side accounts and I joked that today, anyone who talks to me in the office is likely to hear:

Serenity Now

* Many of you know that I run a bit of my private capital like Benjamin Graham, who said you should have separate accounts for your speculations that are not part of your “investments” proper, using them solely for pure entertainment with the full knowledge they could pay off big or be wiped out entirely. Graham pointed out, as has Buffett, that this is neither illegal nor immoral as long as you accept the fact it is not investing.

For example, the extremely risky gamble I took on BP options I told you about a few weeks ago are not even remotely appropriate for anyone else and I knew they might go to zero but they are a tiny portion of our overall net worth.  Even though I occasionally dabble in this sort of thing, like Buffett with his copper futures back in the 1960’s and 1970’s, I favor sweeping any gains into the permanent investment and always playing with the same amount of gambling money so the risk doesn’t grow beyond a set amount each year.

Sugar Company Stock Certificate

I hardly ever talk about the portfolios I manage (the last time was when I added Campbell Soup to the blue chip reserve portfolio in Some Changes In the Portfolio), mostly because investment ideas are rare.  Still, I write about it to the same extent I would be willing to discuss something over coffee with fellow investors so here are some thoughts about what has been going on at Kennon Green Enterprises lately.

The shares of the sugar refiner I had one of my businesses buy only 3 months ago are already up 15.40%, giving a fantastic annualized return.  I’m thinking about selling them but need to go back through the financial statements one more time before I make a decision.

What I really want for Christmas is for General Electric to break $20 per share because if that happens, Joshua Kennon, my friends, is going to break out the champagne.  We started buying it at $6 at the height of the recession and it is already up to $15 to $16 but I have a substantial block of call options through one of my retirement plans that expire in January using a strategy that is not appropriate for anyone reading this.  At this point, every $1 change in share price means a massive gain in our position value. (more…)

Some Changes in the Portfolio

Campbell Soup Stock Certificate

We added some shares of Campbell Soup Company to the Blue Chip Reserve portfolio today. They are fairly conservative; I don't expect more than 8% to 11% compounded out of them over the next decade.

Aaron and I are wrapping up all of the tax documents for fiscal 2009 before shipping them off to the accountants, listening to the new Goldfrapp album, and tweaking the investment portfolio a bit.

I liquidated a respectable portion of the LEAP stock options we bought on General Electric during the crash now that it is approaching $19 per share, or at least was during today’s trading session.  The time premium was no longer adequately reflecting the risk, in my opinion, especially relative to the deep-in-the-money options in the same series.

I also added some Campbell Soup shares to the blue chip reserve portfolio (this is the “dumb money” collection of high quality, dividend paying stocks we build as an insurance policy in the background of some of our operating businesses where we anticipate no more than 8% to 11% returns compounded, but that serve as a backup source of high quality liquidity and long-term compounding).  The company is silently and secretly using almost as much cash repurchasing shares as it is paying cash dividends. (more…)

Coca-Cola Company Common Stock

The original $62,295 investment in Coca-Cola stock grew to 30 million shares worth more than $1,700,000,000 and generated $52,800,000 in annual cash dividends for the bank. That was before the idiots that were put in charge of the asylum decided to sell it, destroying nearly a century of tradition and turning Sun Trust into another pointless, nameless banking commodity.

I’m reading the Sun Trust annual report and I realized that many, if not most, of you are probably unaware of the Sun Trust connection to Coca-Cola and how it gave rise to one of the greatest investments in history.

When Coca-Cola went public in 1919, the underwriting was handled by two institutions, one connected to J.P. Morgan and the other to a predecessor of Sun Trust bank.  The former took their fee of approximately $100,000 in cash.  The latter took their fee in shares of Coca-Cola common stock.  After taxes and other adjustments the cost basis of these shares ended up being $69,295.

The Coca-Cola stock certificates were locked in the Sun Trust bank vaults along with Formula X, the secret recipe to the original Coca-Cola beverage.  For 90 years, they have compounded in value and have grown to 30 million shares worth more than $1.7 billion.  The bank collected roughly $52.8 million in cash dividends each year.

That, of course, was before the idiots that run Sun Trust decided to desecrate nearly a century of tradition and sell the Coca-Cola stock, triggering a huge tax liability but bolstering Tier 1 capital.  (more…)

Papa John's Stock Certificate

A pleasant bit of nostalgia today.  I was researching Papa John’s and it reminded me of the last time I read the report.  I was in 7th grade in a small town called Savannah (again, most of you know I lived in seven or eight different places  before I finished middle school so it’s sometimes necessary to clarify).  I was doing something for the student government association and was in the journalism room on the third floor.  We were there after school, the sun was starting to set, and the windows were open.  I had a copy of a Value Line report covering Papa John’s I had taken from the local public library (it cost, if I recall, 3 cents per copy) and was looking over the figures before deciding that it was “overvalued” based on Benjamin Graham’s approach.  I didn’t buy any, and haven’t in the years since.  That same day, I also read Applebee’s Value Line report (I must have been working my way through the restaurant group…).

As I sat here going through the cash flow statement, it was strange because it was like I was sitting back in that room, reading the report.  It’s funny what is locked away in our memories we don’t recall until something triggers it.

Family Member Speculating on Citigroup Options

Citigroup Stock CertificateSome time ago, a family member of mine decided to take a tiny portion of his speculation portfolio and trade options on Citigroup.  This wasn’t his investment capital, he was fully aware it could totally and completely blow up, but thought it would be interesting and great entertainment, plus he figured that he was right.  With the rest of his “financial house” in order, so to speak, and conservatively managed, it provided far more enjoyment for him than, say, a cruise or blowing the money in Vegas.

He bought $5,338.68 worth of call options (technically, LEAPs, which stand for long-term equity anticipation securities) that expire in January of 2011 with a $5.00 strike price.  This allowed him to control 5,000 shares of Citigroup common stock at a total premium cost of $1.07.  To break even, then, Citigroup would have to be at $6.07 by January of 2011.  If it went to, say, $10, he would be able to cash out for $25,000, or 500% of the original investment.

He may turn out to do well on them despite some crazy initial volatility.  Citigroup is now around $4 per share and according to a recently released report, it expects to earn $20 billion in sustainable profit by 2012.  The market always prices those factors in ahead of time.  By next January, it is entirely possible he will have exceeded both his strike and break-even price if that turns out to be true.

Either way, he has a lot of fun tracking it and studying the bank.  It’s not quite as aggressive as Warren Buffett’s secret copper futures trading operation (talk about risk – that is jet fuel poured on volcano lava!), but at the very least, he is good enough any more at trading options that he could recover at least some of the capital.

Needless to say, I don’t own any Citigroup options.  I tend to be active in shares of U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo from time to time (for example, buying a lot of it for the accounts of my brothers and sisters during the crash when it was at $8 to $12 per share compared to $26 today).  Like clothing companies or musicians, we all develop certain stocks with which we feel comfortable and understand.

Warning: Unless you have a ton of cash, no debt, a steady stream of household income, and understand the risks, do not EVER trade options under ANY circumstances.  You will lose everything.  Your family will despise you.  Your financial life will be over.  Okay, maybe it’s not all that bad, but you could suffer some catastrophic losses because you don’t know what you’re doing.  Just say no, like to drugs.

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