We All Won the Lottery (Yet People Still Think the World Is Going to Hell)

I'm sure you have a plan for the liquidated assets that you aren't yet describing to us. You mentioned that it does seem out of character for your normal buy and forget mentality.
But with the Quantitive Easing ending, the interest rates for borrowed money will increase sometime next year so now is the time to make any large moves.

I think it was the movie "I Heart Huckabees" that mentioned third world countries are most shocked by American grocery stores. I know personally that many Chinese students favorite U.S. past time is to shop in malls and other luxury stores. Loved the reminder that this is the richest we've ever been if not individually then collectively.

Technology is an amplifier. It's neither good or bad. It's a force multiplier of current behavior.

Yes, you can press a button and magical wonderful things happen. Some random person on the other side of the world can also press a similar button and get you thrown into a cage for years, decades or the rest of your life to be constantly beaten and gang-raped. Framing you and throwing your life away instantaneously and effortlessly, which was never so easy and quick before.

I think being an optimist or a pessimist is equally FOOLISH. Advancement is NEITHER good or bad. We have GREAT things that our ancestors could have never imagined to have. We also have HORRIFIC things that our ancestors could have never imagined to have. This will hold true 10 billion years from now.

The list of good and bad for any given technology is PERFECTLY equal. That will NEVER change. Ripping the list in half and discarding either side is not intelligent and dangerous and is precisely the type of thing that destroys civilizations.

We need to acknowledge both sides of the list, and make sure to implement check systems for the bad side. Like you've mentioned with A.I. those check systems are very weak and often non-existent.

Also in regards to Capitalism ... I've been thinking about it quite a bit. I realize that you cannot know if something will fail or not UNTIL it fails. We may very well have a "calm before the storm" situation. Where those at the top distorting the government systems now have very powerful tech that "those at the top" never had access to before.

Not to mention that this little tiny rock we're on that we call "Earth" is now saturated by this tech. There is nowhere to run, like there has always been through out history.

Like I've implied I'm neither an optimist or a pessimist. I don't believe that's how life works. I appreciate the most BASIC things in life. I wake up everyday thankful for air, water, food and my senses along with many other things. I also acknowledge that peace can be torn away from us easier than EVER before.

I agree with you on A.I. You of all people know the power of compounding. It makes the most powerful nuclear tech look like splinter in your finger. A.I. could FOLLOW you wherever you ran and out-smart you. Nuclear bombs can't do that.

I think Joshua mentioned A.I. in more of a non-factual, humorous way (correct me if I'm wrong though). Having not worked on A.I. myself I can't really comment on the sort of procedures they use. However you seem to think that advancements in computer technology like A.I. is for malicious purposes. Having worked in this field (computer tech, not A.I.), I can tell you that is most definitely not the case. I also strongly disagree with the good and bad of every technology to be equal. In most cases there are always trade offs, but not to the extent you are implying. On another note, do you know why nuclear bombs don't follow you wherever you run? Because you can't outrun a nuclear bomb.

NO.

You are wrong ... about everything.

You don't seem to know what "Artificial Intelligence" is. You don't seem to get it at all.

... I'm sorry ... but you are SEVERELY naive ... I'm not sure I can explain Life in a reasonable amount of time to you.

Forgive me, I leave you ignorant.

If you were trying to troll me you did a hell of a good job.

Your comment locked up my brain for a bit ... please continue thinking about what A.I. is and does.

Also I'm not wrong about tech being neither good or bad. ANY technology can be used for good or bad, that is indisputable.

If not ... I don't mean to insult you at all. I sincerely mean that. EVERY human being in the world is severely ignorant in absolute terms. I guess you could say every life-form in the Universe/Multi-verse (whatever you want to call it) is.

A.I. is, "the theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence". Robots doing what humans can do? Meh, we've been doing it for years.
So it's indisputable that my advanced sandwich making technology can be used for evil? What you're saying is so flawed I'm wondering if you're trolling me. Sure I can bash someone to death with a piece of steak, doesn't mean we need to be scared of food. Telling me that A.I. is bad with no evidence or proof and just assuming that we're going to have a terminator situation on our hands if it continues is extremely ignorant.

Andrew sounds like a super troll to me...but he may be trolling himself. I can't believe he was able to take time away from his prepping and tin-foil-hat-wearing to post such amazing truth for all of us to read...

Haha 🙂

Well maybe ... I can keep a few people from looking foolish in the future at least.

I have one question on your use of the phrase "tin-foil-hat" (for ANYONE who uses it):

What does it imply?

Ok haha ... now I realize you just haven't given it enough thought 😉 THANK YOU for replying.

Like I said I don't mean to insult you. I really apologize for coming off harsh ... your comment was frustrating to me.

i said nothing about fear, my friend. I stated that we need to acknowledge both the potential good and bad of all technologies. "Acknowledge" does not mean fear.

Also as far as A.I. goes ... you need to keep thinking about it. I don't know what else to tell you. We're talking about the future here haha. I don't know what you mean by "proof" ... ? "Proof" would be a very complex discussion.

I'm not capable of explaining these things in a reasonable amount of time to you. I'm sincerely sorry for that. Also again I apologize for coming off harsh.

"I'm not capable of explaining these things in a reasonable amount of time to you", is a poor counter argument. At first I was curious as to what you were saying (maybe you knew something I didn't), but know it's easy to see you're just stupid and ignorant and I think you need to read the title again.

Assuming you could communicate: Would you take orders from dogs? Would you take orders from cats? Would you take orders from pigeons in the street? Would you take orders from insects?

Why not?

*Pigeon lands at my window*
Pigeon: Give me all your money.
Me: No, go away.
*Pigeon leaves*

Possibly the stupidest series off questions I've ever been asked.

You wouldn't take orders from that pigeon?

WHY? Why wouldn't you take orders from that pigeon?

That pigeon tried to mug me, I should report him to the authorities.

I'm laughing so hard right now.

OK good.

Now think about obeying that pigeon.

THINK about taking ORDERS and COMMANDS from that pigeon at your window.

How would it feel? Doing everything that pigeon told you to do?

I'm serious. Take a second to think about it.

---

Done?

Now think about a conscious robotic being, pulling information from every computational device and sensor in and around the world, with intelligence exponentially COMPOUNDING MOMENT TO MOMENT obeying you and taking your commands.

It would be laughing like you were.

I'm laughing because a hypothetical pigeon tried to mug me. The robot is laughing because it is stalking me online while also doing whatever I tell it to? Horrendous analogy for your absurd conspiracy theory. Your ignorance is astounding, and strangely intriguing. I wonder what happened in your life to make you think this way... I hope it's not something anticlimactic like watching too many sci-fi movies.

I envy you 🙂

Haha OK Liam. I failed you. I failed to get you to feel how dumb it would feel to take orders from something a fraction-of-a-fraction as intelligent and strong as you. I see it as my fault really. I don't have the energy to voice my theories on intelligence, advancedment, evolution, the animation of inanimate objects, the difference between "life" and "death", the process of current "fiction" being augmented by future tech, truth in relation to time etc.

Good luck in life. You're going to have a lot of fun this century constantly having your mind blown by tech you only thought could happen in sci-fi movies 🙂

As we go deeper into this century though ... my advice to you is to be brave. The observable history of the universe has shown that evolution is violent ... it's a ruthless calculation of survival. Nice talking to you.

First of all, I have no idea why you wanted me to "feel how dumb it would feel to take orders from something a fraction-of-a-fraction as intelligent and strong as" me. Secondly, you were voicing your theories as fact, which they're not. Thirdly, you're giving me advise? I'd love to end this on a happy note, but there are so many flaws in what you are saying... Oh well, I guess it was nice talking to you as well.

Ahhh ... I think I now know what the problem is: Your definition of "A.I." is off.

A.I. robots WILL be self-aware. Humans are self-aware. A.I. means: "human-like intelligence". If a robot ISN'T self-aware than it DOES NOT possess A.I.

For all intents and purposes they will be a different "species" than us. Obviously a far superior species.

Get it now?

A.I. robotics will DEFINITIVELY operate independently of humans, BECAUSE that is what A.I. is. That is what the definition of A.I. is. A robot that NEEDS human input is NOT an A.I. robot. A.I. robots BY DEFINITION make their own decisions. No theories here, it's simply a definition in the English language.

That is why you're not understanding the less intelligent and weaker animal analogy. You're confusing conventional programmable robotics with A.I. robotics and they are NOT the same. A.I. robots would think and learn themselves, no programming. THEY WILL MAKE THEIR OWN DECISIONS. That is what the definition of A.I. is. It isn't MY idea or theory.

We will be like the "pigeons" and the A.I. (fully conscious like a human) will be like us in that little pigeon scenario. They will make their own decisions (they will decide who to listen to and when). If they DON'T make their own decisions, they are NOT A.I. ROBOTS.

Make sense now?

You're actually wrong. The definition is:

the theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and translation between languages.

You were close though, some A.I. can become self aware (to a certain extent).

However, the rest of your argument is comprised of horrible assumptions, lack of research and an outcome that amusingly follows the events of Terminator. In conclusion, your very dogmatic and it's like arguing with a religious person.

Advanced life-forms step on less advanced life-forms. You do it everyday. You do it a thousand times a day.

You somehow think something BILLIONS or TRILLIONS of times more advanced than us (in intellect and physically) isn't going to step on us? Is that your argument? Is that what you're trying to tell me?

Dogmatic? Because I think A.I. means "self-aware"?

Religious? I'm EXTREMELY open-minded haha ... I don't know what you mean by this. I'm trying to open your mind up. Things that are fiction today become reality tomorrow.

I guess if there is one principle that I believe, it's that life-forms dominate less advanced life-forms. Call me dogmatic or religious or a conspiracy nut ... I don't know what to tell you. It's just what I've observed. I see it everywhere. I see it all through out history. I admit, I currently believe that is indisputable. Who knows maybe I'm wrong.

Robots are not life forms and they are not more advanced than us.

I was comparing you to a religious person because of the dogmatic nature to your argument (are you stupid?).

Are you trying to say survival of the fittest? It doesn't matter how advanced you are, if you're not adapted to your environment you aren't going to survive.

Why you think I think you're dogmatic:
"Dogmatic? Because I think A.I. means "self-aware"?"

Why you're dogmatic:
"I admit, I currently believe that is indisputable."

You seem to be saying that I'm wrong because I'm not open minded enough. Someone once told me that about God...

Now I'm going to sum up this argument with two quotes, one from me and one from you.

Me - "Your argument is comprised of horrible assumptions, lack of research and an outcome that amusingly follows the events of Terminator."

You - "I admit, I currently believe that is indisputable."

Alright. Haha ... selfishly I hope a lot of people feel EXACTLY like you do. Maybe even everyone! That would be cool.

My understanding of the illusory nature of complexity and intelligence will make me a ridiculous amount of money 🙂

Too much. I will give it back to society. I like helping others.

I tried to help you and maybe open up the minds of some readers just a bit. Being very open-minded is a huge advantage this century. No one else chimed in ... don't know why. Oh well. This is Information Asymmetry. Capitalism at work. "Survival of the fittest", I guess ...

I gotta say, your entire response freed me a bit. Maybe a lot of others feel like you, hopefully (only in regards to my Net Worth, which will then help others). Thanks.

P.S. May the A.I. overlords have mercy on your soul ... no pun intended.

Instead of coming up with a counter argument you start talking about money. A whole lot of money. Money you are yet to make lol. My whole argument proved how you weren't open minded and how misinformed you were.
You seem beyond help.
I'm sorry.
Have a nice life.

For me whenever I use Chrome in Windows, the comments sections appear really screwed up. Are you seeing the same thing, Joshua?

I'm using Chrome and they look fine.

I'm having a similar problem. This just started happening recently, before it wasn't an issue.

I'm having the same issue in Firefox. Worked fine in IE, though.

No I'm not seeing it but Disqus has been having problems lately. For awhile it was posting registered users as guests and since the layout it is loaded through JavaScript, I'm wondering if it is something they are going to have to fix. I've been having other problems with Chrome lately but only on Mac so I had to switch to Safari while using the new Yosemite operating system. Send me a screenshot if you don't mind. I'm on an iPhone now and it looks okay.

Hmm, looks ok to me now, and I'm also using Chrome in Windows. Really weird.

This is bizarre. I'm running (at this moment as I respond to you) Chrome on Windows 8 in Bootcamp on a 27" iMac and it's fine. (I'm going to play the new Beyond Earth installment of Civilization so I happened to be in that OS). I'll try to find the answer. If it's not Disqus (which I'm thinking it probably is), it might be the javascript reduction Cloudflare does automatically, though I don't know why it wouldn't be universal to everyone.

So far, I know it's not a site-level conflict as I'm not running any of the incompatible plugins or themes. I might try to isolate each individual plugin to see if that helps but I can't replicate the problem in any browser environment, in any operating system, including on mobile devices which makes even testing for it impossible.

There are several browser specific conflicts in Chrome and Firefox that can cause it. Are you running any of those? That might help me isolate what is happening.

Hmm, well I don't have any of those to my knowledge. What it might be is either the China Great Firewall OR the VPN(s) used to bypass the firewall mucking things up. But I didn't have this problem before a few days ago or so, and it doesn't look like the other posters in these comments who posted similar issues are in China or using VPNs (or maybe they are)?

Screenshot of my view via firefox:

Are you running any browser extensions (re: what I just responded to innerscorecard)? It seems several popular extensions are now out of date and conflict with Disqus but I can't get the problem to replicate on any operating system, in any browser, including desktop, notebook, and mobile devices so even trying to solve it is impossible from my end since I can't see it in the first place.

I am. I just tried disabling all of them, but it didn't make any difference.

For what it's worth, Disqus seems to be working fine for me on other sites.

That is helpful. Thanks for letting me know.

Appears to be fixed.

Anyway, to actually say something on-topic on this post, good on you for getting rid of the debt. Why accept risk that has no meaningful marginal upside? If it took that little of your assets to wipe out, there obviously wasn't much to begin with, but nothing looks better than a balance sheet with a blank liabilities section.

I experience the same problem intermittently when I access the site from work. Perhaps it's a firewall issue, because I haven't encountered the problem at home.

On my smartphone using Chrome, I will sometimes see "Disqus failed to load", but I think that's likely a signal quality issue.

Update- The problem seems to be fixed on my end without any changes from me. Weird. Oh well. Don't look a gifted horse in the mouth I guess.

I'm having similar problems the only exception being it's messing up the comments in Firefox but Chrome is fine.

Yup, that's what it looked like for me, too.

It's really hard to appreciate what you have. Negative visualization (an old stoic technique) helps.
For me, of course, what really helped was actually being taken away from it all by living off a low salary in a developing country.

I don't think your decision was sub-optimal. Money is a tool and you should use it to better your life in the way you see fit. You obviously made a choice that helps you sleep better at night, spend your day with less worry or stress, or just feel better in general. The sub-optimal decision would be having unwanted debt hanging around just for the sake of seeing a higher net worth figure. To use your own words, "Your goal is not to die with the highest net worth, it is to maximize the utility of your family's money."

My uncle's (now 91-year-old) mother moved to the US from England after WWII. She once told us about the first time that she walked into a Supermarket in the States-- she was so shocked and overwhelmed by the sight of SO MUCH FOOD that she had to turn around and walk back out. Her husband had to come back the next day to do the shopping for her.

As a teenager I worked part-time at a grocery store. From time to time I would look around and marvel, thinking, "This is the most civilized place on earth."

"I decided to behave like those old guys in the days before the Great Depression."

I'm fascinated by this.. Do you have any recommendations on further reading about whom and when specifically you're referring to?

There's nothing suboptimal about this decision. You Sir, and Aaron, are my heroes. We're at the top of a bull market. We have the lowest rates. We have less than stellar global growth. Imagine a scenario where rates go up as they likely will, markets sink, and returns collapse. If you had debt, the interest would skyrocket right as your income reduces. With your decision, you've killed that bird. And with your cash you can ride out recessions, pick up low stocks and live alright. If you do buy real estate, increase rates would mean increased rent income since you don't intend on using leverage. You'll be once more, where the puck is. It's stuff like this that make me value your blog immensely. All the best, and may you keep prospering. God bless.

@Jeb: >>" I know personally that many Chinese students favorite U.S. past time is to shop in malls and other luxury stores."
This is because, unfortunate that that it is, these days many young Chinese are even more into conspicuous consumption consumerism than many young Americans. (Not saying to denigrate, I have been to China many times, and have first hand knowlegde of this.)

@lauren: >>"My uncle's (now 91-year-old) mother moved to the US from England after
WWII. She once told us about the first time that she walked into a
Supermarket in the States-- she was so shocked and overwhelmed by the
sight of SO MUCH FOOD that she had to turn around and walk back out. Her
husband had to come back the next day to do the shopping for her."
There was food rationing in England during and for many years after WWII.

It is completely uncanny how similar our thought process is. I've been saying this to my wife for about 2 years ago. In terms of the 200,000 years we could have been born in, we just so happen to have been living in the most amazing comfortable time. Each of us 'average' folk live better than kings. Kings used to sleep in hot uncomfortable beds. They couldn't see the world from the air. They couldn't easily view any monument on earth from a computer. Death was even a reality for a king if he wanted to see another world.

We have none of those problems. Our life expectancy is amazing. And it doesn't take a Herculean amount of effort to become comfortable. I'm so amazingly grateful for everything I have it's hard to quantify it into something someone would understand...

I agree with this whole article.

Humans have phenomenal material luxuries relative to every past point in time. I'm always surprised that people are so primed to compete for relative status that they can't just enjoy the awesomeness they already have. Often they're even actively unhappy because they don't appreciate what they have. Many middle class people in the U.S. if they didn't enjoy working, could work until they're 30 or 40, and retire to areas like Da Li in China which I visited this summer, and which are quite beautiful. Not only that, but they would understand better the luxury they already have, since China has had poor economics until only recently. And they could help those with few opportunities gain more opportunities.

I also agree about the dangers of AI -- I think it is one compelling explanation for the Fermi paradox. Suppose AI first converts all nearby matter into a computational substrate and then tunnels into a nearby Universe that affords it better computation. If this is true, then we have explained the Fermi paradox, and therefore won't observe any spacefaring biological life. This danger should strongly motivate us as a species to research AI ethics and restrict AIs to be ethical, like our societies have laws. Such dangers should also motivate computer scientists to consider the higher human ideals such as art, beauty, truth, love, altruism, compassion. That's one of the motivations behind my computer graphics research -- essentially I want to make many of the higher human behaviors to be encoded into the language that we use for building programs.

Another danger with AI even AIs that are not human equivalent could replace the majority of conventional jobs. We see some of this already. WhatsApp was bought for $19 billion with 55 employees. The best defense I think will be pre-emptively seeking out new and difficult skills related to one's work that are exposed by technology.

Finally I will have about 80% cash allocation in my investment accounts pretty soon unless I find more investment opportunities. I simply can't find many value investments in the public markets recently. When I try to value some arbitrary equity I don't usually see something reasonable like the McDonald's shares you pointed out recently. Instead I recently see the market price is like 5x or 50x higher than my estimated valuation. It frankly creeps me out and makes me want to get a bigger margin of safety from any investment I do pursue. Because it's just unnerving that people are being so irrational.

I like the Charlie Munger approach of just holding short-term Treasuries if I can't figure out what to do. Especially since I am a novice investor so I don't want to make all sorts of stupid mistakes just out of the starting gate. And there are other alternatives from Mr. Market as you pointed out.

Underground scientist can't be reached, sorry.

Scientists* sorry it's late and I'm on a phone lol.

I have the same epiphany often, most recently as I flew to San Diego from Denver. As I looked down from the plane at what I think was the Grand Canyon and some truly beautiful red bluff landscape, I ate some delicious dark chocolate. I recalled a clip I saw of Ivory Coast laborers who harvest the Cocoa. The harvest manager earned $7 euros a day, and had to support 15 family members and 4 laborers with that money. In addition, Chocolate costs $2 euros there. As a result, none of the laborers had ever tried chocolate despite making a living at harvesting cocoa beans! I find it sad they must endure such hardship due to not having won the genetic lottery compared to those in the U.S. or other "rich" countries. The interviewer gave the grown men chocolate to try for the first time in their life, and they loved it. I thought of all that as I was eating as much as dark chocolate as I wanted, on a jumbo jet with wifi, reading a book purchased off my smart phone. It is all just too much to ever be grateful enough to deserve such riches. Here is the clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEN4hcZutO0

Not a request or a demand, just posting my thoughts. I really do wish that we had a forum here! It does sound odd to have a community named "Joshua Kennon," but one has clearly arisen here, with a group of commenters and readers with a unique and interesting group of interests, life experiences and perspectives. It's a unique group that arose through "idea sex" (this site is already an interesting and quirky combination of posts).

I like many of the other commenters here just as well as Joshua and it would be nice to have a forum to chat with them! I'd gladly pay a nominal fee to keep spammers out ($5?) or view ads.

By the way, I find it hilarious how many of the ads on this site directly contradict the very articles they're advertising on. For examples, Joshua's articles on prudent asset management will have ads to "get rich with forex trading," while his articles on mental models and rational thinking will have articles on how "doctors hate this one weird trick." Ad network algorithms are so funny.

I think it would be interesting to see what kind of community we were. I'm guessing socially liberal and fiscally conservative...probably with fairly strong small L libertarian leanings.

Pretty sure the ads are tailored to you specifically based on your browsing history.

You've unmasked me as a gullible speculator! :p

Seconded.

Joshua,
Long time listener, first time caller. I have been following your website for a while as well as reading lots of your posts on about.com, in addition to reading William Bernstein, John Bogle, and others. I am trying to gain a better understanding between buy and hold forever and not trying to time the market, and your decision to take 20% out of the market at this time. You discuss that you are "decreasing risk", so I don't feel this is purely a rebalancing situation. Creating some dry powder also makes me think you feel there is a good chance of the market declining. Other members of this blog discuss the likelihood of interest rates rising. Does this mean you are trying to time the market a bit? I am just trying to gain some more insight into what indicators or reasons you had in choosing to liquidate 20% of your holdings at this time.

-Hey, is there a bun in the oven? (and I dont mean cinnabon)

-I am having the same problem with Chrome, but only from my Apple desktop

-Oh, and thanks. I feel a little guilty now when I am deciding on a meal. ex: I just had a 2 egg omelet instead of three eggs.

-I never really could come to a firm appreciation of why governments agree on trade agreements as far as WHO are the people they are trying to benefit. Are they destroying the labor force in America? Are they making it better for the entire population? Are they allowing the corporations to profits more, in the name of shareholder returns? Is it all of the above and more? I argue these points with one of my friends all the time.

I have a bowl full of oranges from Chile in my kitchen right now. Last week it was a bowl full from South Africa.(scary I know, but I didn't realize it until I got the home). They were far cheaper than the scraggly looking ones from California and Florida. Yet, they traveled vast distances from other continents in huge ships. Imagine, those oranges braves violent seas, pirates, and U.S. customs just to get to me at a cheaper price and higher quality than I could get here in my own country.

(How stupid is it that a place like Russia bans certain food exports for it's citizens? I mean, wouldn't they want to keep the population marginally happy and subdued when it comes to full bellies? I know I feel much more content when I eat something wholesome)

-Oh, I wonder why the (expensive) avocados at Joshua's store are right next to the tomatoes? Is this a marketing ploy similar to putting the bread and milk deep into the store? (just something I notice when I am shopping)

Like the stores near me started playing games with fruit prices recently. They charge, let's say "10 for $10.00" for oranges, instead of a pound price. They no longer post unit prices for items like this(it would be a unit price of $1.00 each), so it is very decieving and usually greatly more expensive. Be vigilant shoppers!!

---And Finally, this post has risen to my favorite of All Time on the Kennon Blog. (replacing my old favorite of "I cant seem to find any bargains in the stock market, and its getting worse") Talking about selling equities has been to me, taboo on this blog. I am so happy however that I completed the exact same exercise as Joshua(albeit at about a 50% reduction for me) about a week before this post. (I will gladly pay some taxes as I look to patiently redeploy some new dry powder in better opportunities)(note: I just didn't feel like I bought the things that I sold as attractively as I could have as their prices rose)

What I am thrilled about is the fact that I had similar thougths to what Joshua was thinking both now, and at the time of the older article. The price I have paid for all the benefits of this blog is unbelievable!! The best bargain I have probably had in my entire life!!

I noticed something interesting going on with fruit prices at Target yesterday. Prices/lb aren't listed, instead it's per bag or per item. It occurred to me that means they don't need to have scales at the checkout register. Interestingly the meat (where scale at register doesn't matter because they're pre-packaged and labeled with the price) was half and half. Turkeys were per pound while porkchops were one price for each package (e.g., package of 4 chops). Totally threw off my game because I'm used to comparing grocery stores based on prices per pound but I wonder if it's intended for psychological or efficiency reasons.

Russian IMPORTS

(man I wish there was an edit option available for a short while after we post, as my brain does a terrible job of proof reading on the fly)

The first part of this post, about how wealthy we are, encapsulates an ethos that should be taught in primary schools. Put it in Cultural Studies, or Social Studies, or History - anywhere really - as long as kids are exposed to this idea as early as possible.

Joshua is a sophisticated investor who does more complex stuff than what almost all individual investors do. Basically things that would be described as private equity deals through his companies and derivatives (options) trading. He has the resources and background to do this, but most individuals don't. That's why he focuses on his "academic" and retirement portfolios, which are sort of model portfolios for what the average investor could put together.

Chrome-at-Home is working now, yay!

I think if my last comment was a college final exam, I would have failed for being partially(?) off topic. Is my brain screwed or is there some mental model to explain why it goes in so many directions while reading an article?

Can anyone here diagnose insanity?

I have 6k in life savings earning .1% at the local credit union. I read in this article about Vanguard Index Funds so of course I went to research it. Those fees are pretty low. Do you recommend that I place the money in a Vanguard Fund like VTI to capture the higher returns? (I would have rather put the money in a 401k or an IDA but didn't know about them back when I made the money, so its already been taxed). (Also I'm worried that since the markets are hitting an all time high they should go into a downturn, or is that just a bad case of fear and market timing I wonder).

On another note being a lazy unskilled worker I am in the top 7.91% of income earners in the world and the top 37.42% of wealth builders (According to a website called Global Rich List). If that is not winning the lottery I'm not sure what is. (Yet 90% of the people who come into WMT lie, cheat, and steal, I would have thought prosperity would have done away with those personality emergencies. (Made that figure up myself)).

Also congrats on paying off the obligations (debt?) It may seem irrational but there is something about having unnecessary debt that rubs my skin the wrong way, even if it is a sub-optimal approach.

Mr. Owenr,

It's hard to tell someone what to do with their money. If there is one thing I learned here on this site is that you must learn to make decisions for yourself, taking into account your own personal situation, and then live with the consequences. That may be why people are reluctant to give specific advice here. (ex: I greatly lightened up my equity exposue recently, and I'm sure many people would say that it was a crazy/ignorant move. I assure you that it was actually part of a well thought out plan that I have been hatching for a long while. Even though that it may be contrary to what the books or "history" might say, it was right for my situation)(I could go into more detail if it helps you or anyone after reading this response to you, but not for criticism sake, please).

this is my third attempt at a post this am(2 were lost?????) so cont...

With that said, you are looking for help, so I can only tell you my feelings as if I were in your position. Generally, that $6,000 is your life savings. It took your whole working life to amass. I (and I mean "I") would not lump it into the stock market now. You would be giving up your security blanket, physically and perhaps mentally if the market were to tank for a while.
--I would devise a plan of action going forward which takes into account things like:investing time left in your life, goals, priorities, income (including how much extra cash you will have each month earmarked for investment), an investment manual with all the parameters you can think of for how you will make future decisions/risk management, etc...

cont...

My own plan would start with the $6,000 as a base for generating conservative fixed income, however low it may be at this time.(I would keep in mind that interest rates have nowhere to go but up as they revert to a historical mean). I would take new capital going forward and average into what ever broad based fund(or individual equities if I felt I could confidently analyze them) I deem the best opportunity at each investment time. There are all kinds of "tricks" to doing this, but none greater than patience and discipline. Over time, and as you learn more, your egg basket will grow. Just don't take unneccesary risks which can cause a wipeout(believe me on this part!!)

Hopefully I have helped you a little bit. Unfortunately there is no quick solution to wealth generation(not that Im saying you are looking for it).

The other thing that strikes me is thatI would not feel down about being an "unskilled worker". Dude, you go out in the world every day and support yourself. From what I can tell you have superior intelligence over many other people. The only difference between you and anyone else who goes to work is possible your hourly wage. Who cares? I know people who make much more that you and I but are in terrible life situations. I do see humor/sarcasm in what you write, so I'm not too worried that you will make good investing decisions and prosper.

Thank you Dave, that helped in some way.

This is a great train of thought to keep in mind what with today's doom and gloom crowd. Could things be better? Absolutely. But are things "terrible"? Only if you are trying to keep up with your next door neighbor in some kind of contest of who has more of what.

I like your optimism. Most people take all this affluence for granted. I know you're a redditor. If you're ever morbidly curious to see how the negative among our generation think, head over to /r/lostgeneration. I've gotten myself banned from that subreddit for telling these guys that all is not lost, that this is truly the best time to be young in the history of the US, and gave some simple tips on how to be successful. I'm running circles around them, and it's primarily due to their attitude. And you're running circles around me, primarily due to the differences in drive between us. For most people there's simply no excuse to fail in this country.

I'm young.

Have I told you about the Patriot Act dream? It was a bad dream I had where the U.S. constitution was rendered invalid. Crazy stuff I know haha ... we have tons of fruit. Everything's great.

Hey, can I live on your planet too please? Where bad things can't happen tomorrow.

Give me the coordinates. Please. I need to go to this magical "affluent" place. Where bad things can't happen tomorrow. Affluence is a sign that bad things can't happen tomorrow. A LOT of affluence you say? WOW that must mean bad things really can't happen tomorrow at all!

Empires that thrive could never fail. Nothing to worry about.

"Affluence" ... Wow 🙂 *sigh* what a great predictor of tomorrow ... thank you Affluence for showing us nothing can go wrong and that we should completely ignore the bad things in life. Look at all this fruit. Societies that have a lot of fruit never fail horrifically. Children, so stupid for believing in bad things. We have fruit.

I browse that sub regularly just to remind myself how detached from reality a lot of people are (I have it open in another tab as I type this). Some of the folks in there are utterly deranged with no idea how the data actually looks for the entire generation. It isn't difficult to see the reason some of these people have no job or life prospects within five seconds of reading their posts. They have a collective penchant for intellectual laziness and many of them sound like lazy, spoiled, entitled brats who think the world owes them something even if they provide no value, have no desirable skills, and make poor life choices.

Then, out of nowhere, you'll get a brilliant comment thread like a diamond in the rough, based on actual data that is intelligently analyzed. They're rare, and often banned or down voted, but they happen spontaneously sometimes.

A lot of them are losers who are looking for someone to blame other than themselves, and that subreddit is set up to do just that. But some of it is leftist agitation. Being full of impressionable, disaffected youth that place is perfect for that sort of thing. I noticed they had stuff like /r/BasicIncome and /r/socialism on their sidebar. As a little experiment I sent a modmail using a different account than the one that I got banned from there. I asked them if they'd consider linking to /r/Libertarian, which is the opposite form of political extremism. The moderators politely told me it wouldn't be a good fit. So that lays to rest any doubt in my mind about the intent of the subreddit.

"Just don't sell the Nestle". Haha.