You Really Should Listen to the Robert Glasper Trio (and some Wisdom from Charlie Munger)

"fascism, polio, protectionism, etc."

I am firmly convinced that both sides are dangerously bad, and actually see the left as more competent, more powerful, and with a more dangerous ideology. We were in for a bad time no matter who won. I think it has to get worse before it gets better.

My blogroll includes Andrew Sullivan's substack, The Free Press, Rod Dreher's substack, and until right after the election The Dispatch. I also pay for mainstream straight news websites (local and national), but I won't pay for opinion news where I don't get the feeling that the people I'm paying to read do not understand that we are picking the better of two completely unacceptable sides. Nick Catoggio at The Dispatch slipped into full derangement, blinded by justified antipathy towards Trump. Jonah Goldberg and Kevin Williamson at TD get it, but Catoggio never seemed to get it and truly snapped after the election results came in. I decided I need a break from him.

With Luigi Mangione being made into some kind of hero all over the Internet I've taken to calling my rep and Senators about regulating social media. Two have been silent but Chris Murphy eventually came out with a "murder is wrong, BUT" video statement. These people know very well that this toxic mentality cannot be accepted from the masses, but 40-something percent of young people side with Luigi and my reps won't condemn so many of their own voters. If this political killing is justified then all are justified. The individual will become judge, jury and executioner. The people who lead or merely work for Planned Parenthood seem like prime targets to me. Then you have the leaders of defense contractors, gun manufacturers, drug companies, energy companies, and so on. And of every lobbying group or union. This is a dangerous path and to follow it would mean that liberalism dies, and that our grandchildren might be born into an authoritarian or totalitarian country. I think that a lot of the online left knows exactly what kind of darkness they are trying to bring to this country by rallying around Luigi Mangione.

Congratulations on a very successful year!

I have over the last 4 years considered making a big move to improve where our family lives as you did, but it takes a special type to commit - especially moving your Company.

I've always enjoyed following your thought processes and watching your long-term planning unfold.

"Comparison is the thief of joy" - Theodore Roosevelt.

In the past I've come back to this quote over and over again to remind myself to be grateful for what I have rather than what I don't. Lately though, I'm finding that I can't just quote that and act like nothing's wrong. To preface, I'm fine. I own a home, I have a healthy nest egg going, and I'm a tall, healthy, middle-aged white male. I've won the genetic and demographic lottery.

I really empathize though with the new generations. While some are of course doing well for themselves we can't act like the general quality of life is good enough that we can ignore the bottom 50% of the population's housing and medical crisis. As far as I'm concerned those of us who own a house with a reasonable mortgage are living in a completely different world than those who are paying the median rent of $2000/month while earning the median income of 37.5k. It's just not sustainable. When you add in skyrocketing healthcare costs the things they have like internet, a microwave, and clean water just aren't enough.

The have-nots are getting angry at the growing income inequality and I'm finding it hard to disagree with them. It's true there is still an escape route. People can work multiple jobs, educate themselves, budget correctly and invest responsibly. It's all so much harder these days than it has been the past 40 years though. I don't have any answers but I think acting like people are just falling victim to hedonic adaptation and nothing is actually wrong is a little too dismissive of a rising issue.

Can that claim be quantified? I still think it's a historically easy time to be an American. The problem is what Joshua pointed out. The people who remember the hard times are very old, approaching Munger's age. I have a Cliff's Notes level understanding of the Strauss Howe generations theory and it does make sense to me.

I might actually get the Kindle version of their original Generations book. We are flying to the West Coast for the holidays.

This is an interesting point that you brought up...

"It's all so much harder these days than it has been the past 40 years though"

On one hand it does feel harder, but it's not really if someone has the courage to make changes to their lives which end up solving most of their problems. For example...

It the rent is too high where someone lives, and they can't save any money, take the opportunity to move to a different city. Think about how much easier it is now to research and plan a move like this and how much easier it is to stay in touch with all of your family and friends back at home than it was 20 or 30 years ago.

Or take the opportunities that someone has to expand their earning potential. Lots of online opportunities (part time and full time) for a variety of skill sets. Remote work opportunities, more opportunities to learn and acquire new skills or part time Gig type jobs like DoorDash or Uber . I think this is all actually much easier than it was 20 to 30 years ago.

Think about how much easier it is to invest money or buy real estate now than it was 20 to 30 years ago. At times the world feels harder, but I think the opportunities are much greater than they've ever been.

@aaronprincipe:disqus : I agree it isn't sustainable at least in the US where I live. An interesting podcast I read recently addressing this topic is http://pitchforkeconomics.com (I read much faster than I listen so I just read their transcripts). I feel their thesis is not unlikely: if we continue on the current path of wealth disparities, then the US might either have revolution or a right-wing police state. I'd sum up the problem as that the leaders in our society could fix a lot of problems like making home buying and building more affordable especially for lower-income and/or young folks and switching healthcare to single payer to drive down costs and not have a high percent of bankruptcies due to medical debt. However, there isn't the political will to do this, even though the costs in pitchfork scenario may unfortunately be born by our leaders, they just aren't willing to practice some prudent risk mitigation at present. I think people intuitively sense this hopefully preventable bifurcation looming (revolution or police state), so that's why U.S. citizens who are left-wing are expressing a lot of anger against the top 1% (which Charlie dismisses, characterizing it as envy, but what if it's not envy because peoples' basic Maslow hierarchy needs aren't being met, and it becomes a forced choice?), and also why the far right has made all these authoritarian Project 2025 plans.

I feel like with all the violence and instability in the U.S. that we've already reached the point where it's rational for people who have something to lose and the time and energy to start looking into second citizenships. Apparently there is record demand for this among attorneys recently. In the expected value analysis, if we assume a roughly logarithmic utility vs wealth, and if we assume there is a risk of a -infinity payoff (e.g. bankruptcy due to medical debt, or risk to one's person due to a high fraction of gun ownership in the U.S. and/or untreated mental illness) for some nontrivial probability p and an alternative option that reduces this probability (even if less convenient, higher tax, etc) is available, then it's best to obtain that alternative option as a hedge if it's feasible. This is especially true in the case where someone is wealthy since additional wealth has minor impact on utility but a -infinity event (even if we assume infinity has to be truncated to some large value) will completely overwhelm the expected value calculus for the unhedged scenario.

As a concrete example of the -infinity event scenarios, one podcast they have discusses that 2/3 of people diagnosed with cancer in the U.S. will declare bankruptcy. Imagine declaring bankruptcy while struggling to survive cancer and potentially losing one's job due to feeling unwell! It doesn't get any more basic in the Maslow hierarchy than that. It's like yes people are better off relative to 100 years ago, but Charlie Munger's argument is a short-term, self-serving right wing argument characterizing the opposition through some weak straw man (typical for most of his political comments) because the baseline shouldn't be the US 100 years ago (how is that even relevant?), it should be stable developed countries today that have found ways to structure free markets and capitalism so that young people can get housing, 2/3 of people with cancer don't go bankrupt, and there aren't 3/4 of a million homeless. Also, Charlie was in his late 90s when that video was recorded, but hey, I'm in my early 40s, and it's in my interests for US society to be stable at least for another century (including the next generation in the relevant timeframe for me). So for me, it's not a viable strategy to just dismiss everyone's legitimate concerns.

I feel my analysis is correct that all rational people given sufficient time/money/flexibility should pursue second citizenship hedges, and it's already becoming a drag on the U.S. economy (If capitalism as it is presently structured in the U.S. such a great system, then why is an increasingly large fraction of our citizenry intolerant of our current system, and why are record numbers of our high-profile and/or high income people who are typically deemed "successful" in the U.S. system pursuing second citizenships in other countries? To me the conclusion is that free markets are a reasonable system but some structural reforms are urgently needed). Instead of fixing the problems, it seems to me the U.S. is just trying to head more and more down the path of oligarchs ruling an unstable society, like 1990s Russia.

I feel the middle-out economics approach of http://pitchforkeconomics.com offers some potential solution, but I disagree with them in some aspects like apparently they are fans of Joe Biden. (Although I am somewhat left of center and voted for him, I felt Biden was just making severe strategic blunder after blunder. So while theoretically some of his economic policies will benefit the middle class, I felt it was overwhelmed in the short-term by all the blundering.).

Nice jazz tune though Joshua!

You may be aware, but "Mickey's Once Upon a Christmas" has a segment featuring Donald and Huey, Dewey, and Louie.

It's never been easier to travel. Munger had a lot to say about envy and honestly the decline in religion in the country is playing a role in the idiocy we see on both sides. Another factor is the internet has removed any remaining gatekeepers. Catturd2 has a bigger audience than most real journalists do. Joshua probably would have much to say if he was retired and not actively running a business (and to be clear I'm sure he'd have disagreements with me, and that he'd usually be right about these). I'm not his level of rich. I'm a millionaire next door, already a multimillionaire but won't retire for at least another 15 years. I grew up the kid of a private practice lawyer who didn't make a lot of money, so I'm averse to running my own business. I'm getting rich the old fashioned way and will deal with Joshua's "red ring problem" just fine. I don't mind it at all.

The online left points to the French Revolution, and the academics who formented this are varied leftists but a lot were overt Maoists in their pre-academic days.

Based on my interactions in the real world and recent history like the gay marriage amendment in California where black voters blocked gay marriage, I'm running on the assumption that the black and Hispanic shift is mostly due to transgender extremism. I suspect the polls do not pick up the full extent of the outrage and that the most socially conservative blocs in the democratic coalition voted Republican to protect their women and children from this ideology. The Republicans are turning liberal on same sex marriage so I'm thinking they have a decent read of the public on the culture.

I understand that Mangione is only the start. Look at modern American history. The left turned to terrorism in the 60s and 70s, in the end producing a 1972 Nixon landslide and with their radicals siloing themselves in the universities to embark on their "long march through the institutions". That the institutions are now held by these radicals is precisely why I see these Republicans, and Trump certainly is dangerous, as less dangerous than the other side. Chris Rufo's book "Americas Cultural Revolution" and some of his articles are pretty good on this. By the way I don't pay for his Substack because I don't see any writing from him that hints at the right also being bad. I think he's too smart to not see it and likely sees the left as the greater threat. I can't read his mind, but that's my gut read on him.

This election was so bad for the Democrats that I imagine the Republicans might have actually gotten a landslide if Trump didn't run and either DeSantis or Haley was the nominee. The Democrats can either learn from this disaster or double down on radicalism and risk having to watch Vance or DeSantis clobber them in 2028 with an actual landslide victory. A positive outcome for these Democrats would rely on how poorly Trump behaves and on the economy. Their establishment has been completely discredited by Biden's presidency. If Bernie was younger then the nomination would be his, but this is still his party now.

I see no good way out of this mess.

"I never understood Jazz, always sounded like three people playing different melodies at the same time and then for a brief moment converging and then going off on their own again. "

One could say that about certain classical music, especially Baroque and some 20th century pieces. Just listen to some of J.S. Bach's music or Villa-Lobos' for example.

N D: Hopefully it doesn't get so bad as the French Revolution, but yeah, as I argued above, it may be prudent to have an escape plan. You may also be interested in the pitchfork economics podcast on healthcare that I linked in my longer comment above.

Precisely why capitalism (or whatever iteration we're currently in) works so well. It weaponizes human greed and envy towards providing value to others. Wanna get rich? Produce needed products and ideas! But then there's onlyfans and fartcoin....

Josh must be busy buying Hershey, Nestle and Brown Forman.

I know I am

Josh, dying to hear you weigh in on the neckbreaking speed the new administration is unraveling the American democratic institution. Would you consider, or are you actively, creating any "exit plans" in another western democratic country as a backup, should American democracy deterroate into autocracy?