February 8, 2012

Mental Model: Goldovsky Errors

Why We Make Mistakes by Joseph T. Hallinan

How can a dead body hang in a tree for nearly 14 hours and not be noticed by a town?  How can experts at one of the world's top scientific institutions miss an easy-to-spot mistake for almost 30 years yet a 5th grader spots in 2008 after only a few seconds?  Why can't you remember the name of someone from your kid's karate class if you run into them in the bank or supermarket? Congratulations!  You just discovered Goldovsky errors and how they play into context. There are special types … [Read more...]

Where Do Most Decamillionaires Get Their Money?

Most decamillionaires attribute their wealth to owning and investing in their own, rather than in other people's, businesses, which include the ones listed on the various stock exchanges.  The millionaires state that they can control their own businesses, but they can't control or dictate policy to public corporations, let alone determine prices in the stock market.  Most will also tell you they believe they are better able to operate a particular type of business than anyone else.  The … [Read more...]

Daily Bit of Truth

"A movement can exist without a god, but never without a devil. There has to be an enemy to be destroyed." - Dr. Tony Campolo … [Read more...]

Mental Model: The Dunning–Kruger Effect

Have you ever wondered why some people come to erroneous conclusions despite all the counter evidence, overestimate their abilities, and constantly make mistakes whereas other, more intelligent people often claim ignorance and throw things on the "too hard" pile? I mean, the reality is that 49.99% of people must be below average at any given time at any given skill.  Yet, studies have shown that 90% of Swedish drivers believe they are above average, which is absurd.  Most people believe they … [Read more...]

It’s All The Same …

But as I always say, it doesn’t matter if it’s smokey room in Washington or a board room in New York City, it’s all businessmen in suits looking out for only themselves and controlling us, the masses.  But as least in Washington, we get a vote on what color tie they are wearing. - Joseph Woodhull I was reading Joe's review of Atlas Shrugged this afternoon during a thunderstorm, curled up under a giant red blanket and drinking a cup of coffee when he closed with that. It's a great … [Read more...]

Here Is One of My Secrets to Making Money (Or, How I Once Bribed Women to Code for Me with Diamonds, Rubies, and Chanel)

Diamond and Ruby Bracelet with Bottle of Coco Chanel Mademoiselle Perfume

The Secret: Strike Deals Where Everyone Has Limited Downside and Harness the Super Power of Incentive Some of you have been writing to me privately and asking about the early days when we started out and were trying to build our companies.  I thought it would be useful to share some of the things we did during that time that worked out well ... and maybe I'll even talk about those things that didn't work out so favorably.  I hope you find it useful in your own endeavors. When Aaron and I … [Read more...]

My Parents and Brother Are Off Playing at Some Golf Resort … (In Other News: Hell Just Froze Over)

Payne Stewart Golf Condo Living Room

My parents, who are the type of people who work 18+ hours a day, decided to take a week off and go stay at a condo on one of those $30+ million Payne Stewart luxury golf course complexes, where they met up with my younger brother who is out of state for more military training. They just don't do this stuff but I think they're finally starting to ease up a bit after a lifetime of building because my mom decided to take a three month vacation earlier this year and just stopped coming into the … [Read more...]

Spicy Nachos with Jalapenos, Project Runway and Selma Blair

Nachos with Jalapenos and Sour Creme 1

Tonight, Aaron and I had nachos with beef, sour creme, assorted cheeses, and enough jalapenos to make it burn as we watched the season premier of Project Runway. (Seems weird to say "tonight" because the sun was still up and it was light outside; gotta love summer.) The only thing that was more spicy than the food?  Selma Blair.  She didn't like one designer's work and remarked it looked like something you'd see at a weird sort of store in the mall with a name like "Dazzles!".  We were … [Read more...]

Fine Steaks and a Movie with Aaron & Holly … Oh, and a Box of M&M’s

Kansas City Country Club Plaza Movie Theater

Aaron and I went to dinner at Houston's steakhouse with Holly tonight and then saw the new Angelina Joli film Salt at the Palace Theater in the Country Club Plaza.  It was a great time, Holly looked fantastic, and it was nice to get out of the office and just hang out. (Side note: It so drives me nuts that I ended that sentence in a preposition but I know it is colloquially.) The only downside is I had a box of M&M's.  Remember that whole we get … [Read more...]

Response to What Is Probably the Most Ignorant Message I’ve Received In 10 Years of Writing Finance Articles

A reader named Medusa wrote me and, to keep it short, explained that I shouldn't believe people should be rich because the Bible is against rich people, that I was going to die a miserable, lonely old man with no one who loved me because I saved my money instead of spending it, and that after reading a profile I wrote based on Federal Reserve data of the Capitalist Class in the United States, she was starting to consider the possibility that the rich were nothing but oppressors who steal from … [Read more...]