The Housing Crisis Isn’t All Bad …

Real Estate Home Ownership Housing Crisis

For every $1 in home value lost by a seller, there is $1 saved by the buyer. No one is talking about this, but the housing crisis represents a massive transfer of wealth to the younger generation (35 years and under) from the older generation.

As Warren Buffett pointed out in this year’s letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, for every house that falls in value and pushes one family into bankruptcy, another American family benefits from the lower prices as new households are created due to the younger generation graduating from college, settling down, and moving out of their parents’ houses.

So, the 50 year old that lost all of their home equity is in trouble, but the 22 year old getting married now has much more affordable housing options available, resulting in more cash in his or her wallet each month.  As Buffett put it:

Prices will remain far below “bubble” levels, of course, but for every seller (or lender) hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits. Indeed, many families that couldn’t afford to buy an appropriate home a few years ago now find it well within their means because the bubble burst.

No one is talking about that, though, because it’s somewhat harder to measure.  This is my point when people talk about being at the mercy of the economy … I don’t buy it because there are always intelligent things to do.  If you thought housing was going to fall years ago, you could have shorted the housing market index or construction companies.  I read one account the other day where some of the nation’s top home builders sold everything they owned, approached the private wealth management division of UBS, and put their entire net worth in high-grade bonds.  The newspapers were full every day of headlines screaming, “Housing hits new high!”  How many people took advantage of it?

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Final Fantasy XIII Is Released Tomorrow

Final Fantasy XIII Released for XBOX 360 and Playstation 3

Final Fantasy XIII is released tomorrow. I'll still update the blog (probably) but the business activity is halted for the week. Although, I know myself, I'll probably end up going into my investing office and playing on the television there because I had one put over the fireplace for CNBC but is more often used for taking a break in the middle of the afternoon.

When I tell you that the first stage of financial success is having control over your time, this is what I mean …

When I was a kid, the worst thing in the world was getting a video game for your birthday (ahem, Chrono Trigger), and then waking up the next morning early so you could play it before leaving for school.  All throughout the day, it’s all you could think about because the characters would be calling to you … what happens next in the plot?  You run home after school and play all day.

Tomorrow, Final Fantasy XIII is released.  I’ve been playing the series since I was in fifth or sixth grade and Final Fantasy VI (then called III in the United States) was released and Ruby took me to the mall and bought it for my birthday.  Nearly two decades later, I have a copy of Final Fantasy XIII for XBOX 360, along with a collector’s edition of the player’s guide in hardbound copy, set for delivery. (more…)

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The Kennon Retirement Insurance Plan

One of the Things That Helped Me …

Retirement Insurance Plan

I thought of this "stupidity insurance" as writing my own self-insured retirement plan or insurance policy that would guarantee that by the time I was ready to stop working, I'd be able to take $21,422.71 per month after taxes WITHOUT EVER SAVING ANOTHER DIME after my 30th birthday. Anything else I built up - my businesses, my houses, my art collections, my brokerage accounts, my main retirement accounts - is extra (and, frankly, where the *real* money will be). The account should maintain its value of $6,426,814 over time, meaning that the whole sum could be left to my heirs or given to the family foundation for charitable purposes.

From time to time, you may come across reference to my “stupidity” insurance or my “reserve” fund.  I’ve had a bunch of readers write me over the years and ask about various comments I’ve made so I thought it might be useful to explain it.  My parents, siblings, and Aunt Donna have always known about my investing but virtually no one else did when I was a child (by the time I got into high school, though, it was all I talked about so hiding it was no longer an option).

For those of you who are older than 14, this isn’t going to do any good unless you have children or grandchildren that may benefit from some personalized version of it (which is why I’ve never written about it).  By the time I was older, we had put almost all of my siblings on a modified system that helped to guarantee they would enjoy the same outcome in their own retirements.  This plan has some resemblance to the dividend trust program I described in an article on student loan debt. (more…)

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The 5 Levels of Building Wealth

Scrooge McDuck Carl Barks Money Bin

When I was a child, I would read Scrooge McDuck comics by Carl Barks and Don Rosa. I realized that, while everyone else worked, Scrooge owned everything from the banks to the ice cream factory and the profits kept rolling into his money bin day and night. I realized that's how I wanted my life to be so I could focus on doing the things I enjoy and can give a lot of money away later in life.

Early in life, I developed a theory that there were five levels of building wealth that most self-made men (and women) go through to reach financial independence.  It was started by my love for Carl Barks Scrooge McDuck comics.  When I started reading the Federal Reserve reports of consumer wealth, empirical studies, and other sources of data, and discovered that 90% of those in the United States who are millionaires made the money on their own - that is, they did not inherit it – I started refining my theory.  It helped guide me when I lived in a series of small towns throughout my childhood, saving nearly every penny I could from working after school and pouring it into my investments.

Level 1. A hard working man gets a job in construction and is paid by the hour.  In effect, he sells his time in exchange for a set rate.  When he is done, he collects his wage and that is it.  He will never again receive a penny unless he agrees to sell more time to someone else in the future.  He is always at the whim of the economy and an employer.

Almost all millionaires started here because 90% of high net worth individuals in the United States came from those who inherited little or no money.  The only way to ever make a decent living from this level is to increase the rate at which you can charge for your labor.  By going to law school, medical school, or business school, someone can demand $100 per hour instead of $9 per hour working at a discount store because their skills are harder to find (rarer) and in demand by the public.  The term “wage slave” has been used to describe this level.

Level 2. The hard working man takes some of his savings, built up by spending less than he earned over several years, and starts a new limited liability company to hold his investments.  He contributes the money to purchase the materials to build a house.  He works on it himself to lower costs or, if he doesn’t know construction, hires someone.  He rents the property out to tenants.  Whereas at Level 1, he could only hope to make money from the time he spent on the project, he will now begin collecting rental income that will flow into his household’s income statement every month for years, if not decades, into the future barring some unforeseen disaster.  That is, he is collecting cash each month even if he doesn’t get out of bed in the morning.

Most people never get to this stage because it is difficult to have the discipline to save money and come up with enough money to get off the ground.  It’s a painful, slow process that can cause a lot of burnout, especially if you have no one to guide you and show you how easy it can be.  Instead, they give up and stay at Level 1 forever, always worried about hanging on to employment or making enough to cover the monthly bills. (more…)

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When I talk about the idea of tap dancing to work, in the words of Warren Buffett, I’m not kidding or making a joke.  You should wake up every morning and jump out of bed because you can’t wait to spend your time focusing on something that makes every part of you – physically, mentally, emotionally, and spiritually – satisfied.  This is going to be different for everyone.

Building a financial net worth that allows you to live any way you wish and enjoying your life are not mutually exclusive.  You can make money following your passion if you are wise and intelligent about it.  There is a man working for a major ice cream company that is paid, literally, hundreds of thousands of dollars as the head ice cream taster.  There are people who test roller coasters for a living.  I have arranged my whole life to allow me to sit in a beautiful office, read all day, and acquire stuff because that’s what I enjoy.  Something in me is satisfied when I pass a building and know I own that, or shop in a store and know I have a few thousand shares parked in some operating company somewhere that no one knows about but Aaron.

In fact, this philosophy is terrifyingly close to the one espoused by Molly throughout high school: Follow your bliss.  There are people who have built fortunes making bow ties by hand and selling them from the trunk of their car (seriously).  There are people who travel the world and get paid to write about it.  Find your bliss.  Follow it.  And find a way to make it self-sustaining.  Money isn’t the goal, it’s the by product.

In other words, don’t work for someone else doing something you hate so you can “someday” be financially independent.  You may need to do that for a few years as you figure out the details, but instead map out a plan to make money as you do something about which you are deeply passionate.

In my office, I keep an ever-expanding collection of Monopoly collectibles to remind me that building a company, generating profit, enriching my shareholders, and creating jobs should be fun.  It is a real-life version of Monopoly.  If we want, we should go buy houses and rent them out to tenants.  Or hotels.  Or water utilities.  The point is, if you focus on risk-adjusted return on capital, in an industry you love that is lucrative, and you don’t take yourself too seriously, you’re going to do well over time.

Monopoly collectibles in my office

Business should be fun. Growing an empire is like a real-life game of Monopoly. If you like it, why not buy real houses or hotels? Why not acquire shares of power utilities or water companies? Don't take the game too seriously. I'm convinced that by remembering that money is an illusion - you can always get it if you provide a solution to someone - life is far less stressful. Here's a picture of some of the Monopoly collectibles on the fireplace mantel in my office to remind me of this.

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Focus on the Roots Before the Leaves

Money growing on trees“The problem is that people, particularly younger people, have come to focus on the trappings of wealth over everything else – including the work or savings to accumulate the wealth to be able to reasonably afford luxury brands.  When we think about “rich,” we think about acting rich over being rich.

The Mercedes Millionaire worked hard to achieve success.  First it was about the success, and then came the high-consumption lifestyle – which is congruent with their level of success.  Buying a Mercedes hardly puts a dent in their financial statement.  Contrast them with the acting-rich actors who work to acquire brands with which to imitate the consumption lifestyles of the Mercedes Millionaires.  Not surprisingly, wannabes in general are less satisfied with their lives and have lower levels of job satisfaction than do millionaires.  Driving a leased Mercedes, wearing an expensive watch, or filling up a heavily mortgaged home with Grey Goose will not make one rich or happy.

When an aspirational looks at a Mercedes Millionaire, he only sees what is on display.  He focuses on the leaves of the oak tree, not its roots.  But the values and work habits of millionaires, like the roots of the oak tree, are what support their lifestyles (the leaves), not the other way around. Who should the aspirational seek to emulate instead?  The Toyota Millionaire.  This advice may be painful for some hyperspenders.  For them, a Toyota would never do.  The very thought of a Toyota in the driveway makes them queasy.”

- Page 197, Stop Acting Rich by Dr. Thomas Stanley

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