How to Solve the Trade Deficit – Part IV

This is part of my special on How to Solve the Trade Deficit. You can read Part I, Part II, or Part III if you missed them.

The Increased Competition for Jobs Is Domestic, As Well

You mention that standards of living have fallen, despite gains in things like iPods with 25,000 songs and the ability to connect instantly through the Internet.  The thing is: In many respects, it isn’t true – standards of living haven’t fallen – unless you fit one specific demographic, which we’ll talk about in a minute.

I pointed out a few months ago:

  • Research that showed Americans alive today have more free time that any group of humans that have ever lived in history (you can read about it here).  What do they do with that free time?  Watch television.  No, literally, the research showed that people used all of those extra hours to sit on the couch in front of the TV.
  • Teen pregnancy and abortion rates are collapsing, which is promising for future poverty rates because having a child before the age of 25 is more likely to result in lifetime poverty.
  • We live longer than any civilization in history.
  • We have better pain management than any humans who have ever lived.
  • We can cure more diseases than any humans who have ever lived.
  • We can travel anywhere on the planet in under 20 hours.
  • We consider full-home air conditioning and heat a basic human right when, only 90 years ago, the richest men on the planet suffered the heat just like the poorest worker.
I Want My Country Back

What "I Want My Country Back" really means for many people, whether they realize it or not, is they want to go back to a time when a man could get married, have kids, and support a family on a single salary by working at the local factory. What they don't realize is for that to be possible, it required limited choice for consumers, and keeping blacks, women, Jews, gays, and the elderly out of the workforce. What they really want is the system that allowed them to have a job simply because they were ENTITLED to one by virtue of being a white man. Those days are over and they are never coming back ... frankly, I think it's good for civilization. I love meritocracy as long as there is equality of opportunity.

Plus, you must consider that 50 years ago, blacks, Jews, gays, women, and anyone over 55 weren’t viable competitors in the work force because they were either paid a fraction of their white, male protestant counterparts, fired, or not even considered for positions.  Unless you happened to fit into that one lucky genetic “lottery ticket” you were screwed.

Now, we are increasingly a meritocracy.  In today’s workforce, you are far more likely to have your ideas compete with a much wider range of people.  This is good for the civilization.

To put it bluntly: When you say things are getting worse from a standard of living perspective than they were several decades ago, the unspoken fact is that this is only true if you are a straight, white, male, protestant, high school graduate who wants to make a living without years of specialized training. (more…)

How to Solve the Trade Deficit – Part III

This is Part III of my special on How to Solve the Trade Deficit.  If you missed the earlier parts, you can read Part I or Part II first.

How to Solve the Trade Deficit – Knowledge Workers vs. Manual Workers

In many ways, your question about the trade deficit has very little to do with global trade policies and everything to do with the rise of the “knowledge worker” class that Peter Drucker predicted in 1959.

Drucker, the management guru who is to executives what Warren Buffett is to investors, realized decades before most of his contemporaries that rapid gains in technology would eventually result in blue collar jobs disappearing and causing somewhat of a crisis in the population. Drucker hypothesized that the economy would split into several major classes of employees: “knowledge workers”, “production workers” and “manual workers,” just to name a few.

What Is a Knowledge Worker?

Knowledge Worker

Take someone who creates video games as an example of a knowledge worker. Based upon the skills he or she has, they probably think of themselves less as an "EA Games" person or a "Square Enix" person and more as a "video game" person. They are their own business. Their skills are portable. They can work for someone else, work for themselves by freelancing, or raise money and start their own company. If they can create an iPad or iPhone game and sell 100,000 copies for a $4 profit each after Apple's cut, they earn the $400,000. Knowledge workers own their own means of production, which is the information and skills they have acquired through years of work, training, schooling and / or experience.

A knowledge worker is someone who has a set of skills that cannot be easily replicated or automated. A heart surgeon, a nurse, a nuclear engineer, a chemist, and a lawyer are examples of knowledge workers. No matter who employs them, they are, for all intents and purposes, their own business.

A nurse can move across the country and find work at another hospital far easier than someone who flips burgers for a living because the competition for the fast food job is much more intense (after all, almost anyone can flip burgers but not everyone has the years of medical knowledge necessary to save people’s lives in a hospital setting). Likewise, an attorney can put up a shingle and go into business for himself, getting clients to pay him on a case-by-case basis. (more…)

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In Honor of Warren Buffett’s 80th Birthday Today …

Warren Buffett's Birthday

Today is Warren Buffett's birthday. He turns 80 years old! Congratulations! To celebrate, I saved money ...

In honor of Warren Buffett’s 80th birthday today, I decided to personally sit down and examine all of the receipts at one of our operating businesses and look for any additional costs that could be cut.  We work hard to make sure expenses don’t get out of control and everything is justified but it is always good to take some time to specifically examine everything you pay for and ask whether or not is central to the company’s mission.

We run such a lean ship that I didn’t find a lot. But … I finally identified about $420 in monthly costs we could end immediately that weren’t directly contributing to our primary mission of generating earnings for owners or a better experience for customers. That is more than $5,000 per year in cash savings!

The average American business earns 12% on book value (we earn more but I’m going to use this rate for conservatism sake), meaning that over the next 20 years, that $5,000 in annual savings will result in an extra $360,262 in net worth to our shareholders. Over the next 50 years, it is an extra $12,000,000.

That is how powerful compounding is!  Small amounts end up being very, very large over time.

The moment I performed the calculation, this is what happened inside … (press the Play button) …

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Serenity Now!

This post deals with my side speculation fund, not my investments.  You shouldn’t have a speculation fund unless you have short-term emergency reserves, little or no debt, fully funded retirement accounts and the lifestyle you want. In fact, for a vast majority of people, I think it would be completely inappropriate unless you love the financial markets and they provide you deep satisfaction.*

Woke up this morning to find that one of my speculative accounts was down $50,000 and due to the trading strategy, it has only four months remaining before it becomes a permanent loss.  So, in sixteen weeks I’ll have either made a nice chunk of change or I’ll have lost that amount.  All of that beautiful gambling money … gone.  Let’s just say I’m not terribly optimistic it will work out in my favor but you never know.

It reminded me of when Charlie Munger, after he had become very, very rich, saw Berkshire Hathaway lose $250 million or so in no time on an airline investment Warren Buffett had made and Charlie described the feeling of watching all of that beautiful money just disappear right in front of your eyes… Even though it won’t do any damage to a healthy business in the long-run, it isn’t pleasant.

(Don’t cry for me … I’m a big boy and I can take it.  Molly informs me that anecdotes like this will make my biography believable.  Otherwise, it will have just been an obnoxious direct upward ascent that will demotivate, rather than inspire people.  I told her the rare loss is fine but I’d prefer to make the mistakes up through creative editing so I can keep the money and still inspire, LOL!)

Anyway, I was talking to my dad about it because he has his own side accounts and I joked that today, anyone who talks to me in the office is likely to hear:

Serenity Now

* Many of you know that I run a bit of my private capital like Benjamin Graham, who said you should have separate accounts for your speculations that are not part of your “investments” proper, using them solely for pure entertainment with the full knowledge they could pay off big or be wiped out entirely. Graham pointed out, as has Buffett, that this is neither illegal nor immoral as long as you accept the fact it is not investing.

For example, the extremely risky gamble I took on BP options I told you about a few weeks ago are not even remotely appropriate for anyone else and I knew they might go to zero but they are a tiny portion of our overall net worth.  Even though I occasionally dabble in this sort of thing, like Buffett with his copper futures back in the 1960’s and 1970’s, I favor sweeping any gains into the permanent investment and always playing with the same amount of gambling money so the risk doesn’t grow beyond a set amount each year.

Montblanc Star Chronograph Automatic WatchWhen I was 22 years old, or thereabouts, I bought a Swiss made Montblanc Star Chronograph Automatic stainless steel watch from Borsheim’s during the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting.  I wanted something that would last, God willing, for the rest of my life and would remind me of when I was young, just starting out, and successfully building my first businesses and got to hear Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger speak to me as an owner of one of the greatest companies in history.  It was an emotional, keepsake purchase.  I’ve never regretted it, despite the fact I could have bought more stock with the money.

Sadly, the alligator strap on the watch is now broken so I have to replace it.  Turns out, they cost roughly $400, which is higher than I expected.  (The watch itself retails for $2,740 so it is proportionate, especially given it is authentic alligator skin.)

Still, I hate paying that much for a strap.  I’d gladly buy another watch but it kind of feels like when you have a tire blow out and you need to purchase a new one.  It’s not nearly as pleasant as buying a new car.  It also doesn’t help I don’t know if I want to go with a burgundy or black watch band … or maybe a dark green for money.

So, you consider that Buffett is 79.  The average American business earns 12% on book value (we earn much more but I’m going to go with average here).  If I were to put the $400 back into the business instead of replacing the watch strap, at 12% compounded, by the time I am Buffett’s age, I’ll have an extra $145,009.  That is the power of compound interest.  So, do I want to spend $500 to buy another watch strap today or do I want an extra $145,009 half a century from now by reinvesting the money?  That is what I need to decide.

How to Marry a MillionaireIn 1953, a great movie starring Lauren Bacall, Bette Grable and Marilyn Monroe was released called How to Marry a Millionaire.  I got curious as to how much money it would take to equal the same net worth today so I did an inflation adjustment because I wanted to know how big their motivation was in the film.

Turns out, someone who had $1 million in 1953 would have roughly $8 million today. That kind of asset base should generate cash dividends or interest of $34,000 per month without working, while still providing for inflation, taxes and some reinvestment to keep earnings growing in the future. (more…)

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